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January 9, 2008 / chrisisgross

analysis of the political analysis

expect this blog to take a on a political tone since i will have the privilege to vote here in california in less than a month.

here is my take on last night. as i posted last night i think that there was a great swing towards actual talk on the issues. the republican side was blown wide open and the three candidates who in my view are running campaigns of image and vanity failed( i.e. romney, thompson and giuliani) in new hampshire.

of the two republicans running an issues based campaign, mccain spoke from his experience and from his gut and that is refreshing. ron paul has plenty of financial support and can inject some interesting libertarian thoughts into the republican campaign. mccain got the momentum that he needed and paul is still treading water as before.

the democrats swung back to a two person race, both of whom are viable, thoughtful, and credible candidates. with edwards still in the race the change vote may not be the strongest element for obama to win the nomination. both obama and edwards are running similar campaigns and until edwards surges or drops out obama is going to need to diversify his platform. clinton’s chances have jumped incredibly in the last 12 hours.

one other interesting element that seems to be coming out of last nights results, without trying to seem to strident or preachy, is the unfortunate effects of the celebrity/punditry based election coverage of the campaigns.

while i understand the need for polling to gauge the impact of the candidates and their issues the general populace gets swept up in the popularity contest that surrounds this race. even the independently minded voters of new hampshire were willing to change their minds based on polling.

some anecdotal evidence is coming to light that registered independents in new hampshire who were initially planning on voting obama switched to mccain at the last minute because they erroneously believed that they were throwing away their vote. they assumed that obama was going to have a double digit win and in the end he lost by three.

if you vote from your conscience and from your beliefs than you are not throwing away your vote.when you vote against what you feel that you should do than you truly are throwing away your vote. especially when you have the chance to effect a race and vote for your candidate than you should regardless of the prevailing trends. even it is being a part of a landslide or being part of a slim minority vote than that is the way that you should vote. do not let all of the hype that has become this campaign change your mind.

it seems very possible that the landscape of the democratic race changed due to this swing. while i may be excited about this those who changed their mind based solely on polling numbers did a disservice to their candidate and while iowa and new hampshire are small states who are not indicative of the rest of the country they are bellwethers of what is to come. the race is far from over and february 5 gets really interesting.


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